knife soloで vagrant で構築した Ubuntu14.04 に設定をしているのですが半分ぐらいの確率で以下のエラーが出ます。

Uploading the kitchen...
ERROR: RuntimeError: Failed to launch command ["rsync", "-rL", "--chmod=ugo=rwX", "--rsh=ssh vagrant@ubuntu", "--delete-after", "--exclude=revision-deploys", "--exclude=tmp", "--exclude=.git", "--exclude=.hg", "--exclude=.svn", "--exclude=.bzr", "/cygdrive/C/Users/ironsand/dev/chef-trusty-ironsand/cookbooks/", ":~/chef-solo/cookbooks-3"]

knife solo cook ubuntuで上記のエラーが出た後に何も変更せずもう一度実行するとエラーにならなかったりするため原因が特定できずに困っています。

環境は Windows7, chef-dk 0.3.5, knife-solo 0.4.2, rsync version 3.1.0 protocol version 31 です。

また ~/.ssh/config に StrictHostKeyChecking noの記述があることを確認してます。

単純に ssh ubuntuに接続を試みた時に失敗することはありません。

原因を特定したいのですがどのように調べたら良いでしょうか？

追記

@helicac2001 さんのアドバイスに従い rsync をコマンドラインから実行してログを取得しようとしたのですが、10回ほど試してみましたが全てエラー無く正常に終了してしまい原因が特定できませんでした。

rsync -rL --log-file=rsync.log --chmod=ugo=rwX --rsh="ssh vagrant@ubuntu" --delete-after --exclude=revision-deploys --exclude=tmp --exclude=.git --exclude=.hg --exclude=.svn --exclude=.bzr /cygdrive/C/Users/ironsand/dev/chef-trusty-ironsand/cookbooks/ :~/chef-solo/cookbooks-3

knife solo経由で呼び出すrsyncの引数を変える方法はあるのでしょうか？

-VVオプションを付けた場合のエラーログ

$ knife solo cook ubuntu -VV
Starting 'Run'
Running Chef on ubuntu...
Checking Chef version...
DEBUG: Initial command sudo chef-solo --version 2>/dev/null | awk '$1 == "Chef:" {print $2}'
DEBUG: Initial command sudo -V
DEBUG: Running processed command sudo -V
DEBUG: sudo -V stdout: Sudo version 1.8.9p5
DEBUG: sudo -V stdout:

DEBUG: sudo -V stdout: Sudoers policy plugin version 1.8.9p5
DEBUG: sudo -V stdout:

DEBUG: sudo -V stdout: Sudoers file grammar version 43
DEBUG: sudo -V stdout:

DEBUG: sudo -V stdout: Sudoers I/O plugin version 1.8.9p5
DEBUG: sudo -V stdout:

DEBUG: Running processed command sudo -E -p 'knife sudo password: ' chef-solo --version 2>/dev/null | awk '$1 == "Chef:" {print $2}'
DEBUG: sudo -E -p 'knife sudo password: ' chef-solo --version 2>/dev/null | awk '$1 == "Chef:" {print $2}' stdout: 11.8.2
DEBUG: sudo -E -p 'knife sudo password: ' chef-solo --version 2>/dev/null | awk '$1 == "Chef:" {print $2}' stdout:

DEBUG: Node config 'nodes/ubuntu.json' already exists
Installing Berkshelf cookbooks to 'cookbooks'...
Resolving cookbook dependencies...
Using R (0.0.1)
Using apt (2.6.1)
Using build-essential (2.1.3)
Using chef_handler (1.1.6)
Using chocolatey (0.2.0)
Using dmg (2.2.2)
Using ffmpeg (0.4.3)
Using git (4.1.0)
Using java (1.29.0)
Using libvpx (1.0.1)
Using locale (1.0.2)
Using phantomjs (1.0.3)
Using rbenv (0.7.3) from git://github.com/sds/chef-rbenv.git (at install-gems-as-user)
Using ruby_build (0.8.0)
Using runit (1.5.12)
Using windows (1.36.1)
Using x264 (0.5.1)
Using yasm (1.0.2)
Using yum (3.5.2)
Using yum-epel (0.5.3)
Vendoring R (0.0.1) to cookbooks/R
Vendoring apt (2.6.1) to cookbooks/apt
Vendoring build-essential (2.1.3) to cookbooks/build-essential
Vendoring chef_handler (1.1.6) to cookbooks/chef_handler
Vendoring chocolatey (0.2.0) to cookbooks/chocolatey
Vendoring dmg (2.2.2) to cookbooks/dmg
Vendoring ffmpeg (0.4.3) to cookbooks/ffmpeg
Vendoring git (4.1.0) to cookbooks/git
Vendoring java (1.29.0) to cookbooks/java
Vendoring libvpx (1.0.1) to cookbooks/libvpx
Vendoring locale (1.0.2) to cookbooks/locale
Vendoring phantomjs (1.0.3) to cookbooks/phantomjs
Vendoring rbenv (0.7.3) to cookbooks/rbenv
Vendoring ruby_build (0.8.0) to cookbooks/ruby_build
Vendoring runit (1.5.12) to cookbooks/runit
Vendoring windows (1.36.1) to cookbooks/windows
Vendoring x264 (0.5.1) to cookbooks/x264
Vendoring yasm (1.0.2) to cookbooks/yasm
Vendoring yum (3.5.2) to cookbooks/yum
Vendoring yum-epel (0.5.3) to cookbooks/yum-epel
DEBUG: Cheffile not found
Uploading the kitchen...
DEBUG: Initial command ver
DEBUG: Running processed command ver
DEBUG: ver stdout: bash: ver: command not found
DEBUG: ver stdout:

DEBUG: Initial command mkdir -p -m 0700 ~/chef-solo
DEBUG: Running processed command mkdir -p -m 0700 ~/chef-solo
DEBUG: No chefignore file found at ./chefignore no files will be ignored
DEBUG: Initial command ver
DEBUG: Running processed command ver
DEBUG: ver stdout: bash: ver: command not found
DEBUG: ver stdout:

DEBUG: ["rsync", "-rL", "-v", "--chmod=ugo=rwX", "--rsh=ssh vagrant@ubuntu", "--delete-after", "--exclude=revision-deploys", "--exclude=tmp", "--exclude=.gi
t", "--exclude=.hg", "--exclude=.svn", "--exclude=.bzr", "/cygdrive/C/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/knife-solo/resources/p
atch_cookbooks/", ":~/chef-solo/cookbooks-1"]
building file list ... done
chef-solo-search/.travis.yml
chef-solo-search/CHANGELOG
chef-solo-search/LICENSE
chef-solo-search/NOTICE
chef-solo-search/README.md
chef-solo-search/metadata.rb
chef-solo-search/libraries/search.rb
chef-solo-search/libraries/search/overrides.rb
chef-solo-search/libraries/search/parser.rb
chef-solo-search/libraries/vendor/chef/solr_query/lucene.treetop
chef-solo-search/libraries/vendor/chef/solr_query/lucene_nodes.rb
chef-solo-search/libraries/vendor/chef/solr_query/query_transform.rb
chef-solo-search/recipes/default.rb
chef-solo-search/tests/Gemfile
chef-solo-search/tests/test_data_bags.rb
chef-solo-search/tests/test_search.rb
chef-solo-search/tests/data/data_bags/node/alpha.json
chef-solo-search/tests/data/data_bags/node/beta.json
chef-solo-search/tests/data/data_bags/node/without_json_class.json
chef-solo-search/tests/data/data_bags/users/jerry.json
chef-solo-search/tests/data/data_bags/users/lea.json
chef-solo-search/tests/data/data_bags/users/mike.json
chef-solo-search/tests/data/data_bags/users/tom.json

sent 2,165 bytes  received 940 bytes  2,070.00 bytes/sec
total size is 47,483  speedup is 15.29
DEBUG: Initial command ver
DEBUG: Running processed command ver
DEBUG: ver stdout: bash: ver: command not found
DEBUG: ver stdout:

DEBUG: ["rsync", "-rL", "-v", "--chmod=ugo=rwX", "--rsh=ssh vagrant@ubuntu", "--delete-after", "--exclude=revision-deploys", "--exclude=tmp", "--exclude=.gi
t", "--exclude=.hg", "--exclude=.svn", "--exclude=.bzr", "/cygdrive/C/Users/ironsand/dev/chef-trusty-ironsand/site-cookbooks/", ":~/chef-solo/cookbooks-2"]
building file list ... done
base/CHANGELOG.md
base/README.md
base/metadata.rb
base/files/default/id_rsa
base/files/default/known_hosts
base/recipes/default.rb
base/recipes/user.rb

sent 990 bytes  received 210 bytes  480.00 bytes/sec
total size is 5,007  speedup is 4.17
DEBUG: Initial command ver
DEBUG: Running processed command ver
DEBUG: ver stdout: bash: ver: command not found
DEBUG: ver stdout:

DEBUG: ["rsync", "-rL", "-v", "--chmod=ugo=rwX", "--rsh=ssh vagrant@ubuntu", "--delete-after", "--exclude=revision-deploys", "--exclude=tmp", "--exclude=.gi
t", "--exclude=.hg", "--exclude=.svn", "--exclude=.bzr", "/cygdrive/C/Users/ironsand/dev/chef-trusty-ironsand/cookbooks/", ":~/chef-solo/cookbooks-3"]
building file list ... done
R/README.rdoc
R/metadata.json
R/recipes/default.rb
apt/CHANGELOG.md
apt/README.md
apt/metadata.json
apt/attributes/default.rb
apt/files/default/apt-proxy-v2.conf
apt/libraries/helpers.rb
apt/libraries/matchers.rb
apt/libraries/network.rb
apt/providers/preference.rb
apt/providers/repository.rb
apt/recipes/cacher-client.rb
apt/recipes/cacher-ng.rb
apt/recipes/default.rb
apt/recipes/unattended-upgrades.rb
apt/resources/preference.rb
apt/resources/repository.rb
apt/templates/debian-6.0/acng.conf.erb
apt/templates/default/01proxy.erb
apt/templates/default/20auto-upgrades.erb
apt/templates/default/50unattended-upgrades.erb
apt/templates/default/acng.conf.erb
apt/templates/default/unattended-upgrades.seed.erb
apt/templates/ubuntu-10.04/acng.conf.erb
build-essential/CHANGELOG.md
build-essential/README.md
build-essential/metadata.json
build-essential/attributes/default.rb
build-essential/libraries/matchers.rb
build-essential/libraries/timing.rb
build-essential/libraries/xcode_command_line_tools.rb
build-essential/recipes/_debian.rb
build-essential/recipes/_fedora.rb
build-essential/recipes/_freebsd.rb
build-essential/recipes/_mac_os_x.rb
build-essential/recipes/_omnios.rb
build-essential/recipes/_rhel.rb
build-essential/recipes/_smartos.rb
build-essential/recipes/_solaris2.rb
build-essential/recipes/_suse.rb
build-essential/recipes/default.rb
chef_handler/CHANGELOG.md
chef_handler/README.md
chef_handler/metadata.json
chef_handler/attributes/default.rb
chef_handler/files/default/handlers/README
chef_handler/libraries/matchers.rb
chef_handler/providers/default.rb
chef_handler/recipes/default.rb
chef_handler/recipes/json_file.rb
chef_handler/resources/default.rb
chocolatey/CHANGELOG.md
chocolatey/README.md
chocolatey/metadata.json
chocolatey/attributes/default.rb
chocolatey/libraries/chocolatey_helpers.rb
chocolatey/providers/default.rb
chocolatey/recipes/default.rb
chocolatey/resources/default.rb
dmg/CHANGELOG.md
dmg/README.md
dmg/metadata.json
dmg/attributes/default.rb
dmg/libraries/matchers.rb
dmg/providers/package.rb
dmg/recipes/default.rb
dmg/resources/package.rb
ffmpeg/.kitchen.yml
ffmpeg/.rubocop.yml
ffmpeg/CONTRIBUTING.md
ffmpeg/Gemfile
ffmpeg/Gemfile.lock
ffmpeg/README.md
ffmpeg/Rakefile
ffmpeg/TESTING.md
ffmpeg/Thorfile
ffmpeg/chefignore
ffmpeg/metadata.json
ffmpeg/attributes/default.rb
ffmpeg/libraries/helpers.rb
ffmpeg/recipes/default.rb
ffmpeg/recipes/package.rb
ffmpeg/recipes/source.rb
ffmpeg/templates/default/compiled_with_flags.erb
git/CHANGELOG.md
git/README.md
git/metadata.json
git/attributes/default.rb
git/libraries/matchers.rb
git/providers/config.rb
git/recipes/default.rb
git/recipes/server.rb
git/recipes/source.rb
git/recipes/windows.rb
git/resources/config.rb
git/templates/default/git-xinetd.d.erb
git/templates/default/sv-git-daemon-log-run.erb
git/templates/default/sv-git-daemon-run.erb
java/.gitignore
java/.kitchen.docker.yml
java/.kitchen.yml
java/Berksfile
java/Berksfile.lock
java/CHANGELOG.md
java/CONTRIBUTING.md
java/Gemfile
java/Gemfile.lock
java/ISSUES.md
java/LICENSE
java/README.md
java/TESTING.md
java/metadata.json
java/attributes/default.rb
java/libraries/helpers.rb
java/libraries/matchers.rb
java/providers/alternatives.rb
java/providers/ark.rb
java/recipes/default.rb
java/recipes/default_java_symlink.rb
java/recipes/ibm.rb
java/recipes/ibm_tar.rb
java/recipes/openjdk.rb
java/recipes/oracle.rb
java/recipes/oracle_i386.rb
java/recipes/oracle_rpm.rb
java/recipes/purge_packages.rb
java/recipes/set_attributes_from_version.rb
java/recipes/set_java_home.rb
java/recipes/windows.rb
java/resources/alternatives.rb
java/resources/ark.rb
java/templates/default/ibm_jdk.installer.properties.erb
java/templates/default/oracle.jinfo.erb
libvpx/.kitchen.yml
libvpx/.rubocop.yml
libvpx/CONTRIBUTING.md
libvpx/Gemfile
libvpx/Gemfile.lock
libvpx/README.md
libvpx/Rakefile
libvpx/TESTING.md
libvpx/Thorfile
libvpx/chefignore
libvpx/metadata.json
libvpx/attributes/default.rb
libvpx/libraries/helpers.rb
libvpx/recipes/default.rb
libvpx/recipes/package.rb
libvpx/recipes/source.rb
libvpx/templates/default/compiled_with_flags.erb
locale/README.md
locale/metadata.json
locale/attributes/default.rb
locale/libraries/locale.rb
locale/recipes/default.rb
phantomjs/CHANGELOG.md
phantomjs/README.md
phantomjs/metadata.json
phantomjs/attributes/debian.rb
phantomjs/attributes/default.rb
phantomjs/attributes/gentoo.rb
phantomjs/attributes/rhel.rb
phantomjs/attributes/windows.rb
phantomjs/recipes/default.rb
phantomjs/recipes/package.rb
phantomjs/recipes/source.rb
phantomjs/recipes/structure.rb
rbenv/.gitignore
rbenv/.kitchen.yml
rbenv/.rspec
rbenv/.travis.yml
rbenv/Berksfile
rbenv/CHANGELOG.md
rbenv/Gemfile
rbenv/Guardfile
rbenv/README.md
rbenv/Rakefile
rbenv/metadata.json
rbenv/attributes/default.rb
rbenv/libraries/chef_provider_package_rbenvrubygems.rb
rbenv/libraries/chef_rbenv_mixin.rb
rbenv/libraries/chef_rbenv_recipe_helpers.rb
rbenv/libraries/chef_rbenv_script_helpers.rb
rbenv/libraries/matchers.rb
rbenv/providers/global.rb
rbenv/providers/plugin.rb
rbenv/providers/rehash.rb
rbenv/providers/ruby.rb
rbenv/providers/script.rb
rbenv/recipes/default.rb
rbenv/recipes/system.rb
rbenv/recipes/system_install.rb
rbenv/recipes/user.rb
rbenv/recipes/user_install.rb
rbenv/recipes/vagrant.rb
rbenv/resources/gem.rb
rbenv/resources/global.rb
rbenv/resources/plugin.rb
rbenv/resources/rehash.rb
rbenv/resources/ruby.rb
rbenv/resources/script.rb
rbenv/templates/default/rbenv.sh.erb
rbenv/test/integration/system_ruby/bats/global_ruby.bats
rbenv/test/integration/system_ruby/bats/installation.bats
rbenv/test/integration/system_ruby/bats/plugins.bats
rbenv/test/integration/system_ruby/bats/ruby_envvars.bats
rbenv/test/unit/spec_helper.rb
rbenv/test/unit/fixtures/recipes/rbenv_global_defaults.rb
rbenv/test/unit/fixtures/recipes/rbenv_global_full.rb
rbenv/test/unit/fixtures/recipes/rbenv_plugin_defaults.rb
rbenv/test/unit/fixtures/recipes/rbenv_plugin_full.rb
rbenv/test/unit/fixtures/recipes/rbenv_rehash_defaults.rb
rbenv/test/unit/fixtures/recipes/rbenv_rehash_full.rb
rbenv/test/unit/fixtures/recipes/rbenv_script_defaults.rb
rbenv/test/unit/fixtures/recipes/rbenv_script_full.rb
rbenv/test/unit/providers/global_spec.rb
rbenv/test/unit/providers/plugin_spec.rb
rbenv/test/unit/providers/rehash_spec.rb
rbenv/test/unit/providers/script_spec.rb
rbenv/test/unit/resources/gem_spec.rb
rbenv/test/unit/resources/global_spec.rb
rbenv/test/unit/resources/plugin_spec.rb
rbenv/test/unit/resources/rehash_spec.rb
rbenv/test/unit/resources/ruby_spec.rb
rbenv/test/unit/resources/script_spec.rb
ruby_build/CHANGELOG.md
ruby_build/README.md
ruby_build/metadata.json
ruby_build/attributes/default.rb
ruby_build/libraries/ruby_build_recipe_helpers.rb
ruby_build/providers/ruby.rb
ruby_build/recipes/default.rb
ruby_build/resources/ruby.rb
runit/CHANGELOG.md
runit/README.md
runit/metadata.json
runit/attributes/default.rb
runit/files/default/runit-2.1.1.tar.gz
runit/files/default/runit.seed
runit/files/default/runsvdir
runit/files/ubuntu-6.10/runsvdir
runit/files/ubuntu-7.04/runsvdir
runit/files/ubuntu-7.10/runsvdir
runit/files/ubuntu-8.04/runsvdir
runit/libraries/default.rb
runit/libraries/matchers.rb
runit/libraries/provider_runit_service.rb
runit/libraries/resource_runit_service.rb
runit/recipes/default.rb
runit/templates/debian/init.d.erb
runit/templates/default/log-config.erb
runit/templates/gentoo/runit-start.sh.erb
windows/.gitignore
windows/.kitchen.yml
windows/Berksfile
windows/CHANGELOG.md
windows/CONTRIBUTING
windows/Gemfile
windows/LICENSE
windows/README.md
windows/TODO.md
windows/chefignore
windows/metadata.json
windows/attributes/default.rb
windows/files/default/handlers/windows_reboot_handler.rb
windows/libraries/feature_base.rb
windows/libraries/matchers.rb
windows/libraries/powershell_helper.rb
windows/libraries/powershell_out.rb
windows/libraries/registry_helper.rb
windows/libraries/version.rb
windows/libraries/windows_architecture_helper.rb
windows/libraries/windows_helper.rb
windows/libraries/windows_package.rb
windows/libraries/windows_privileged.rb
windows/libraries/wmi_helper.rb
windows/providers/auto_run.rb
windows/providers/batch.rb
windows/providers/feature_dism.rb
windows/providers/feature_powershell.rb
windows/providers/feature_servermanagercmd.rb
windows/providers/font.rb
windows/providers/pagefile.rb
windows/providers/path.rb
windows/providers/printer.rb
windows/providers/printer_port.rb
windows/providers/reboot.rb
windows/providers/registry.rb
windows/providers/shortcut.rb
windows/providers/task.rb
windows/providers/zipfile.rb
windows/recipes/default.rb
windows/recipes/reboot_handler.rb
windows/resources/auto_run.rb
windows/resources/batch.rb
windows/resources/feature.rb
windows/resources/font.rb
windows/resources/pagefile.rb
windows/resources/path.rb
windows/resources/printer.rb
windows/resources/printer_port.rb
windows/resources/reboot.rb
windows/resources/registry.rb
windows/resources/shortcut.rb
windows/resources/task.rb
windows/resources/zipfile.rb
x264/.kitchen.yml
x264/.rubocop.yml
x264/CONTRIBUTING.md
x264/Gemfile
x264/Gemfile.lock
x264/README.md
x264/Rakefile
x264/TESTING.md
x264/Thorfile
x264/chefignore
x264/metadata.json
x264/attributes/default.rb
x264/libraries/helpers.rb
x264/recipes/default.rb
x264/recipes/package.rb
x264/recipes/source.rb
x264/templates/default/compiled_with_flags.erb
yasm/.kitchen.yml
yasm/.rubocop.yml
yasm/CONTRIBUTING.md
yasm/Gemfile
yasm/Gemfile.lock
yasm/README.md
yasm/Rakefile
yasm/TESTING.md
yasm/Thorfile
yasm/chefignore
yasm/metadata.json
yasm/attributes/default.rb
yasm/libraries/helpers.rb
yasm/recipes/default.rb
yasm/recipes/package.rb
yasm/recipes/source.rb
yasm/templates/default/compiled_with_flags.erb
yum-epel/CHANGELOG.md
yum-epel/README.md
yum-epel/metadata.json
yum-epel/attributes/default.rb
yum-epel/attributes/epel-debuginfo.rb
yum-epel/attributes/epel-source.rb
yum-epel/attributes/epel-testing-debuginfo.rb
yum-epel/attributes/epel-testing-source.rb
yum-epel/attributes/epel-testing.rb
yum-epel/attributes/epel.rb
yum-epel/recipes/default.rb
yum/CHANGELOG.md
yum/README.md
yum/metadata.json
yum/attributes/main.rb
yum/libraries/matchers.rb
yum/providers/globalconfig.rb
yum/providers/repository.rb
yum/recipes/default.rb
yum/resources/globalconfig.rb
yum/resources/repository.rb
yum/templates/default/main.erb
yum/templates/default/repo.erb

sent 33,600 bytes  received 16,020 bytes  19,848.00 bytes/sec
total size is 915,238  speedup is 18.44
C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/knife-solo/tools.rb:4:in `system!': Failed to launch command ["rsync", "-rL", "-v", "--ch
mod=ugo=rwX", "--rsh=ssh vagrant@ubuntu", "--delete-after", "--exclude=revision-deploys", "--exclude=tmp", "--exclude=.git", "--exclude=.hg", "--exclude=.sv
n", "--exclude=.bzr", "/cygdrive/C/Users/ironsand/dev/chef-trusty-ironsand/cookbooks/", ":~/chef-solo/cookbooks-3"] (RuntimeError)
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:272:in `rsync'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:229:in `upload'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:245:in `upload_to_provision_path'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:120:in `block in sync_kitchen'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:119:in `each'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:119:in `each_with_index'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:119:in `sync_kitchen'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:92:in `block in run'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:208:in `time'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:75:in `run'
        from C:/opscode/chefdk/embedded/apps/chef/lib/chef/knife.rb:493:in `run_with_pretty_exceptions'
        from C:/opscode/chefdk/embedded/apps/chef/lib/chef/knife.rb:174:in `run'
        from C:/opscode/chefdk/embedded/apps/chef/lib/chef/application/knife.rb:139:in `run'
        from C:/opscode/chefdk/embedded/apps/chef/bin/knife:25:in `<top (required)>'
        from C:/opscode/chefdk/bin/knife:44:in `load'
        from C:/opscode/chefdk/bin/knife:44:in `<main>'

2015/01/13 追記

@ohga さんのアドバイスに従いrsyncのデバッグをより詳細に出すようにし、rsyncの返り値が24の場合も正常終了とするように書き換えを行った結果が以下です。

DEBUG: ["rsync", "-rL", "-vvv", "--chmod=ugo=rwX", "--rsh=ssh vagrant@ubuntu", "--delete-after", "--exclude=revision-deploys", "--exclude=tmp", "--exclude=.git", "--exclude=.hg", "--exclude=.svn", "--exclude=.bzr", "/cygdrive/C/Users/ironsand/AppData/Local/Temp/solo.rb20150115-1272-134yk99", ":~/chef-solo/solo.rb"]
opening connection using: ssh vagrant@ubuntu  rsync --server -vvvre.iLs --delete-after . "~/chef-solo/solo.rb"  (9 args)
building file list ...
[sender] make_file(solo.rb20150115-1272-134yk99,*,0)
done
send_file_list done
send_files starting
server_recv(2) starting pid=12400
[Receiver] add_rule(- revision-deploys)
[Receiver] add_rule(- tmp)
[Receiver] add_rule(- .git)
[Receiver] add_rule(- .hg)
[Receiver] add_rule(- .svn)
[Receiver] add_rule(- .bzr)
recv_file_name(solo.rb20150115-1272-134yk99)
received 1 names
recv_file_list done
get_local_name count=1 /home/vagrant/chef-solo/solo.rb
generator starting pid=12400
delta-transmission enabled
recv_generator(solo.rb,0)
generating and sending sums for 0
count=2 rem=111 blength=700 s2length=2 flength=811
send_files(0, /cygdrive/C/Users/ironsand/AppData/Local/Temp/solo.rb20150115-1272-134yk99)
send_files mapped /cygdrive/C/Users/ironsand/AppData/Local/Temp/solo.rb20150115-1272-134yk99 of size 811
calling match_sums /cygdrive/C/Users/ironsand/AppData/Local/Temp/solo.rb20150115-1272-134yk99
solo.rb20150115-1272-134yk99
built hash table
hash search b=700 len=811
match at 0 last_match=0 j=0 len=700 n=0
match at 700 last_match=700 j=1 len=111 n=0
done hash search
sending file_sum
false_alarms=0 hash_hits=2 matches=2
sender finished /cygdrive/C/Users/ironsand/AppData/Local/Temp/solo.rb20150115-1272-134yk99
generate_files phase=1
send_files phase=1
recv_files(1) starting
recv_files(solo.rb)
recv mapped solo.rb of size 811
got file_sum
renaming .solo.rb.Za4bb5 to solo.rb
recv_files phase=1
generate_files phase=2
send_files phase=2
send files finished
total: matches=2  hash_hits=2  false_alarms=0 data=0
recv_files phase=2
recv_files finished
generate_files phase=3
generate_files finished

sent 184 bytes  received 847 bytes  687.33 bytes/sec
total size is 811  speedup is 0.79
[sender] _exit_cleanup(code=0, file=main.c, line=1183): about to call exit(0)
C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/knife-solo/tools.rb:10:in `system!': Failed to launch command (100) ["rsync", "-rL", "-vvv", "--chmod=ugo=rwX", "--rsh=ssh vagrant@ubuntu", "--delete-after", "--exclude=revision-deploys", "--exclude=tmp", "--exclude=.git", "--exclude=.hg", "--exclude=.svn", "--exclude=.bzr", "/cygdrive/C/Users/ironsand/AppData/Local/Temp/solo.rb20150115-1272-134yk99", ":~/chef-solo/solo.rb"] (RuntimeError)
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:273:in `rsync'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:230:in `upload'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:255:in `write'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:226:in `generate_solorb'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:93:in `block in run'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:209:in `time'
        from C:/Users/ironsand/.chefdk/gem/ruby/2.0.0/gems/knife-solo-0.4.2/lib/chef/knife/solo_cook.rb:75:in `run'
        from C:/opscode/chefdk/embedded/apps/chef/lib/chef/knife.rb:493:in `run_with_pretty_exceptions'
        from C:/opscode/chefdk/embedded/apps/chef/lib/chef/knife.rb:174:in `run'
        from C:/opscode/chefdk/embedded/apps/chef/lib/chef/application/knife.rb:139:in `run'
        from C:/opscode/chefdk/embedded/apps/chef/bin/knife:25:in `<top (required)>'
        from C:/opscode/chefdk/bin/knife:44:in `load'
        from C:/opscode/chefdk/bin/knife:44:in `<main>'

非常に長いので最後付近のみ貼り付けていますが、rsyncがcode=0で正常終了しているのに何故か100が返っているとなってしまっています。

rsyncのドキュメントには30までしかありませんし、どこからこの100は来てるのでしょうか？

2015/01/15 追記

同様のエラーが出た人向けの情報としてknife-soloのIssueに登録しておきました。
https://github.com/matschaffer/knife-solo/issues/420